Курсовая работа - Трендовые модели исследования Валового внутреннего продукта Соединенных Штатов Америки - файл n1.xls

Курсовая работа - Трендовые модели исследования Валового внутреннего продукта Соединенных Штатов Америки
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n1.xls

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Overview

Таблица 1
eng GDP real
Таблица 2
rus
rus gdp
Таблица 3.
MNK
MNK2
Лист5
Лист3
Лист4
Лист6
ТРЕНД
ПРОГНОЗ
Лист1


Sheet 1: Таблица 1

WEO Country Code ISO WEO Subject Code
Subject Descriptor Subject Notes Units Scale 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Estimates Start After
111 USA NGDP_R United States Gross domestic product, constant prices Real GDP is expressed in billions of national currency units; the base year is country-specific. National currency Billions 5,839.000 5,987.200 5,870.950 6,136.175 6,577.125 6,849.250 7,086.550 7,313.275 7,613.900 7,885.925 8,033.925 8,015.125 8,287.075 8,523.450 8,870.675 9,093.750 9,433.925 9,854.350 10,283.525 10,779.850 11,225.975 11,347.175 11,552.975 11,840.700 12,263.800 12,638.375 12,976.250 13,254.050 13,312.175 12,948.730 13,145.307 13,509.138 13,862.785 14,208.539 14,511.270 2008
111 USA NGDP_RPCH United States Gross domestic product, constant prices Annual percentages of constant price GDP are year-on-year changes; the base year is country-specific. Annual percent change
-0.229 2.538 -1.942 4.518 7.186 4.137 3.465 3.199 4.111 3.573 1.877 -0.234 3.393 2.852 4.074 2.515 3.741 4.457 4.355 4.826 4.139 1.080 1.814 2.490 3.573 3.054 2.673 2.141 0.439 -2.730 1.518 2.768 2.618 2.494 2.131 2008
111 USA NGDP United States Gross domestic product, current prices GDP is expressed in billions of national currency units. National currency Billions 2,788.121 3,126.850 3,253.175 3,534.600 3,930.925 4,217.475 4,460.050 4,736.350 5,100.425 5,482.125 5,800.525 5,992.100 6,342.300 6,667.325 7,085.150 7,414.625 7,838.475 8,332.350 8,793.475 9,353.500 9,951.475 10,286.175 10,642.300 11,142.175 11,867.750 12,638.375 13,398.925 14,077.650 14,441.425 14,266.201 14,704.207 15,326.881 16,008.506 16,729.376 17,419.352 2008
111 USA NGDPD United States Gross domestic product, current prices Values are based upon GDP in national currency and the exchange rate projections provided by country economists for the group of other emerging market and developing countries. Exchanges rates for advanced economies are established in the WEO assumptions for each WEO exercise. U.S. dollars Billions 2,788.121 3,126.850 3,253.175 3,534.600 3,930.925 4,217.475 4,460.050 4,736.350 5,100.425 5,482.125 5,800.525 5,992.100 6,342.300 6,667.325 7,085.150 7,414.625 7,838.475 8,332.350 8,793.475 9,353.500 9,951.475 10,286.175 10,642.300 11,142.175 11,867.750 12,638.375 13,398.925 14,077.650 14,441.425 14,266.201 14,704.207 15,326.881 16,008.506 16,729.376 17,419.352 2008
111 USA NGDP_D United States Gross domestic product, deflator The GDP deflator is derived by dividing current price GDP by constant price GDP and is considered to be an alternate measure of inflation. Please note: Data are expressed in the base year of each country's national accounts. Index
47.750 52.226 55.411 57.603 59.767 61.576 62.937 64.764 66.988 69.518 72.200 74.760 76.532 78.223 79.872 81.535 83.088 84.555 85.510 86.768 88.647 90.650 92.117 94.101 96.771 100.000 103.257 106.214 108.483 110.175 111.859 113.456 115.478 117.742 120.040 2008
111 USA NGDPRPC United States Gross domestic product per capita, constant prices GDP is expressed in constant national currency per person. Data are derived by dividing constant price GDP by total population. National currency Units 25,652.187 26,040.853 25,291.883 26,195.375 27,832.938 28,728.208 29,454.555 30,126.683 31,081.266 31,889.907 32,129.606 31,631.347 32,273.411 32,764.049 33,687.227 34,128.247 34,994.813 36,120.060 37,256.134 38,610.481 39,767.327 39,789.996 40,122.461 40,743.000 41,822.227 42,708.166 43,442.369 43,943.336 43,730.352 42,153.705 42,375.094 43,116.767 43,807.420 44,455.472 44,953.121 2008
111 USA NGDPPC United States Gross domestic product per capita, current prices GDP is expressed in current national currency per person. Data are derived by dividing current price GDP by total population. National currency Units 12,248.911 13,599.987 14,014.584 15,089.233 16,634.805 17,689.601 18,537.764 19,511.165 20,820.823 22,169.176 23,197.700 23,647.566 24,699.626 25,629.125 26,906.527 27,826.601 29,076.547 30,541.333 31,857.839 33,501.684 35,252.489 36,069.494 36,959.767 38,339.425 40,471.610 42,708.166 44,857.416 46,673.953 47,439.926 46,442.644 47,400.351 48,918.412 50,588.057 52,342.631 53,961.802 2008
111 USA NGDPDPC United States Gross domestic product per capita, current prices GDP is expressed in current U.S. dollars per person. Data are derived by first converting GDP in national currency to U.S. dollars and then dividing it by total population. U.S. dollars Units 12,248.911 13,599.987 14,014.584 15,089.233 16,634.805 17,689.601 18,537.764 19,511.165 20,820.823 22,169.176 23,197.700 23,647.566 24,699.626 25,629.125 26,906.527 27,826.601 29,076.547 30,541.333 31,857.839 33,501.684 35,252.489 36,069.494 36,959.767 38,339.425 40,471.610 42,708.166 44,857.416 46,673.953 47,439.926 46,442.644 47,400.351 48,918.412 50,588.057 52,342.631 53,961.802 2008
111 USA NGAP_NPGDP United States Output gap in percent of potential GDP Output gaps for advanced economies are calculated as actual GDP less potential GDP as a percent of potential GDP. Estimates of output gaps are subject to a significant margin of uncertainty. For a discussion of approaches to calculating potential output, see Paula R. De Masi, "IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice," in Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook (Washington: IMF, December 1997), pp. 40-46. Percent of potential GDP
-2.063 -2.217 -6.710 -5.313 -1.615 -0.721 -0.406 -0.310 0.729 1.351 0.404 -2.541 -1.890 -1.864 -0.730 -1.111 -0.712 0.014 0.034 0.330 0.857 -0.908 -1.515 -1.169 0.113 0.777 0.948 0.684 -0.825 -4.460 -3.893 -2.159 -0.862 -0.088 0.021 2008
111 USA PPPGDP United States Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDP These data form the basis for the country weights used to generate the World Economic Outlook country group composites for the domestic economy. Please note: The IMF is not a primary source for purchasing power parity (PPP) data. WEO weights have been created from primary sources and are used solely for purposes of generating country group composites. For primary source information, please refer to one of the following sources: the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the World Bank, or the Penn World Tables. For further information see Box A2 in the April 2004 World Economic Outlook, Box 1.2 in the September 2003 World Economic Outlook for a discussion on the measurement of global growth and Box A.1 in the May 2000 World Economic Outlook for a summary of the revised PPP-based weights, and Annex IV of the May 1993 World Economic Outlook. See also Anne Marie Gulde and Marianne Schulze-Ghattas, "Purchasing Power Parity Based Weights for the World Economic Outlook," in Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook (Washington: IMF, December 1993), pp. 106-23. Current international dollar Billions 2,788.121 3,126.850 3,253.175 3,534.600 3,930.925 4,217.475 4,460.050 4,736.350 5,100.425 5,482.125 5,800.525 5,992.100 6,342.300 6,667.325 7,085.150 7,414.625 7,838.475 8,332.350 8,793.475 9,353.500 9,951.475 10,286.175 10,642.300 11,142.175 11,867.750 12,638.375 13,398.925 14,077.650 14,441.425 14,266.201 14,704.207 15,326.881 16,008.506 16,729.376 17,419.352 2008
111 USA PPPPC United States Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) per capita GDP These data form the basis for the country weights used to generate the World Economic Outlook country group composites for the domestic economy. Please note: The IMF is not a primary source for purchasing power parity (PPP) data. WEO weights have been created from primary sources and are used solely for purposes of generating country group composites. For primary source information, please refer to one of the following sources: the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the World Bank, or the Penn World Tables. For further information see Box A2 in the April 2004 World Economic Outlook, Box 1.2 in the September 2003 World Economic Outlook for a discussion on the measurement of global growth and Box A.1 in the May 2000 World Economic Outlook for a summary of the revised PPP-based weights, and Annex IV of the May 1993 World Economic Outlook. See also Anne Marie Gulde and Marianne Schulze-Ghattas, "Purchasing Power Parity Based Weights for the World Economic Outlook," in Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook (Washington: IMF, December 1993), pp. 106-23. Current international dollar Units 12,248.911 13,599.987 14,014.584 15,089.233 16,634.805 17,689.601 18,537.764 19,511.165 20,820.823 22,169.176 23,197.700 23,647.566 24,699.626 25,629.125 26,906.527 27,826.601 29,076.547 30,541.333 31,857.839 33,501.684 35,252.489 36,069.494 36,959.767 38,339.425 40,471.610 42,708.166 44,857.416 46,673.953 47,439.926 46,442.644 47,400.351 48,918.412 50,588.057 52,342.631 53,961.802 2008
111 USA PPPSH United States Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) share of world total These data form the basis for the country weights used to generate the World Economic Outlook country group composites for the domestic economy. Please note: The IMF is not a primary source for purchasing power parity (PPP) data. WEO weights have been created from primary sources and are used solely for purposes of generating country group composites. For primary source information, please refer to one of the following sources: the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the World Bank, or the Penn World Tables. For further information see Box A2 in the April 2004 World Economic Outlook, Box 1.2 in the September 2003 World Economic Outlook for a discussion on the measurement of global growth and Box A.1 in the May 2000 World Economic Outlook for a summary of the revised PPP-based weights, and Annex IV of the May 1993 World Economic Outlook. See also Anne Marie Gulde and Marianne Schulze-Ghattas, "Purchasing Power Parity Based Weights for the World Economic Outlook," in Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook (Washington: IMF, December 1993), pp. 106-23. Percent
22.375 22.472 21.874 22.265 22.829 22.956 22.974 22.923 22.872 22.854 22.658 22.347 22.707 22.908 23.108 22.968 22.976 23.063 23.466 23.695 23.467 23.150 22.889 22.663 22.385 22.126 21.659 21.071 20.612 20.022 19.598 19.331 19.021 18.642 18.259 2007
111 USA PPPEX United States Implied PPP conversion rate These data form the basis for the country weights used to generate the World Economic Outlook country group composites for the domestic economy. Please note: The IMF is not a primary source for purchasing power parity (PPP) data. WEO weights have been created from primary sources and are used solely for purposes of generating country group composites. For primary source information, please refer to one of the following sources: the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the World Bank, or the Penn World Tables. For further information see Box A2 in the April 2004 World Economic Outlook, Box 1.2 in the September 2003 World Economic Outlook for a discussion on the measurement of global growth and Box A.1 in the May 2000 World Economic Outlook for a summary of the revised PPP-based weights, and Annex IV of the May 1993 World Economic Outlook. See also Anne Marie Gulde and Marianne Schulze-Ghattas, "Purchasing Power Parity Based Weights for the World Economic Outlook," in Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook (Washington: IMF, December 1993), pp. 106-23. National currency per current international dollar
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 2008
111 USA NID_NGDP United States Investment Data are based on individual countries' national accounts statistics. For many countries, the estimates of national saving are built up from national accounts data on gross domestic investment and from balance of payments-based data on net foreign investment Percent of GDP
20.786 21.723 19.352 19.439 22.258 21.219 20.623 20.464 19.758 19.566 18.562 17.076 17.152 17.590 18.604 18.566 18.938 19.695 20.169 20.621 20.867 19.288 18.703 18.717 19.725 20.289 20.541 19.535 18.228 14.978 14.954 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2008
111 USA NGSD_NGDP United States Gross national savings Data are based on individual countries' national accounts statistics. For many countries, the estimates of national saving are built up from national accounts data on gross domestic investment and from balance of payments-based data on net foreign investment Percent of GDP
19.466 20.662 19.104 17.042 19.165 17.507 15.904 16.516 17.675 16.858 15.820 15.876 14.699 14.375 15.450 16.441 17.151 18.310 18.814 18.261 18.090 16.485 14.667 13.936 14.528 15.060 16.228 14.493 12.631 10.955 12.642 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2008
111 USA PCPI United States Inflation, average consumer prices Data for inflation are averages for the year, not end-of-period data. The index is based on 2000=100. Index, 2000=100
47.844 52.809 56.062 57.833 60.359 62.489 63.703 65.983 68.688 71.979 75.880 79.079 81.484 83.904 86.081 88.496 91.095 93.225 94.667 96.743 100.000 102.817 104.457 106.858 109.708 113.415 117.069 120.417 124.991 124.502 126.645 128.897 131.724 134.689 137.687 2008
111 USA PCPIPCH United States Inflation, average consumer prices Data for inflation are averages for the year, not end-of-period data. Annual percent change
13.502 10.378 6.158 3.160 4.368 3.528 1.944 3.578 4.100 4.791 5.419 4.216 3.042 2.970 2.596 2.805 2.937 2.338 1.547 2.193 3.367 2.817 1.596 2.298 2.668 3.379 3.222 2.860 3.798 -0.391 1.722 1.778 2.193 2.251 2.226 2008
111 USA PCPIE United States Inflation, end of period consumer prices Data for inflation are end of the period, not annual average data. The index is based on 2000=100. Index, 2000=100
49.553 53.799 55.960 58.159 60.425 62.424 63.481 66.137 69.107 72.515 76.695 78.941 81.426 83.587 85.863 88.185 90.908 92.441 93.926 96.687 100.000 101.552 104.208 106.198 109.625 113.728 116.220 121.007 121.823 123.727 125.541 128.122 131.021 133.941 136.526 2008
111 USA PCPIEPCH United States Inflation, end of period consumer prices Data for inflation are end of the period, not annual average data. Annual percent change
12.809 8.569 4.017 3.930 3.896 3.309 1.693 4.184 4.491 4.932 5.763 2.929 3.148 2.654 2.722 2.705 3.088 1.686 1.607 2.939 3.427 1.552 2.616 1.909 3.227 3.743 2.191 4.119 0.674 1.563 1.466 2.056 2.263 2.228 1.930 2008
111 USA FLIBOR6 United States Six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR)
Percent
14.029 16.719 13.601 9.934 11.289 8.645 6.846 7.304 8.128 9.272 8.353 6.079 3.901 3.411 5.071 6.100 5.590 5.859 5.564 5.528 6.649 3.728 1.875 1.230 1.792 3.763 5.274 5.252 3.046 1.188 1.443 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2008
111 USA LUR United States Unemployment rate
Percent of total labor force
7.175 7.617 9.708 9.600 7.508 7.192 7.000 6.175 5.492 5.258 5.617 6.850 7.492 6.908 6.100 5.592 5.408 4.942 4.500 4.217 3.967 4.742 5.783 5.992 5.542 5.075 4.617 4.633 5.808 9.257 10.146 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2008
111 USA LE United States Employment
Persons Millions 99.303 100.400 99.529 100.822 105.003 107.154 109.601 112.439 114.974 117.327 118.796 117.713 118.488 120.259 123.071 124.908 126.720 129.572 131.476 133.501 136.901 136.939 136.481 137.729 139.240 141.714 144.420 146.050 145.368 140.603 141.454 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2008
111 USA LP United States Population
Persons Millions 227.622 229.916 232.128 234.247 236.307 238.416 240.593 242.751 244.968 247.286 250.047 253.392 256.777 260.146 263.325 266.458 269.581 272.822 276.022 279.195 282.291 285.177 287.943 290.619 293.236 295.924 298.700 301.617 304.415 307.179 310.213 313.315 316.448 319.613 322.809 2008
111 USA GGB United States General government balance Data are on a national income accounts basis. Please refer to Box A1 in the World Economic Outlook for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections. National currency Billions -83.250 -69.900 -157.750 -198.400 -186.850 -211.650 -234.275 -203.375 -181.725 -176.725 -246.075 -294.675 -365.625 -328.925 -251.850 -232.250 -170.725 -66.100 37.925 79.000 159.050 -39.375 -396.675 -529.725 -508.700 -404.700 -295.125 -399.350 -844.825 -1,776.898 -1,464.197 -1,159.818 -1,000.188 -1,104.305 -1,165.798 2008
111 USA GGB_NGDP United States General government balance Data are on a national income accounts basis. Please refer to Box A1 in the World Economic Outlook for a summary of the policy assumptions underlying the projections. Percent of GDP
-2.986 -2.235 -4.849 -5.613 -4.753 -5.018 -5.253 -4.294 -3.563 -3.224 -4.242 -4.918 -5.765 -4.933 -3.555 -3.132 -2.178 -0.793 0.431 0.845 1.598 -0.383 -3.727 -4.754 -4.286 -3.202 -2.203 -2.837 -5.850 -12.455 -9.958 -7.567 -6.248 -6.601 -6.693 2008
111 USA GGSB United States General government structural balance The structural budget balance, or cyclically adjusted budget balance, is derived from a cyclically neutral budget model. [How to Measure the Fiscal Deficit?, Blejer and Cheasty, IMF, 1993, page 86-88]. This refers to the deficit or surplus which would prevail if the economy were at a ?normal? level. [?A Review of the Fiscal Impulse Measure,? Heller, Haas, and Mansur, IMF Occasional Paper, May 1986, page 36] National currency Billions -174.222 -45.373 -81.022 -127.533 -161.105 -200.191 -228.140 -200.817 -196.428 -204.713 -259.720 -248.849 -319.673 -284.658 -232.528 -207.663 -153.759 -69.044 7.805 130.427 204.798 104.488 -147.517 -274.752 -260.379 -210.686 -185.774 -201.560 -499.672 -756.346 -814.669 -663.345 -588.306 -717.122 -538.873 2008
111 USA GGSB_NPGDP United States General government structural balance The structural budget balance, or cyclically adjusted budget balance, is derived from a cyclically neutral budget model. [How to Measure the Fiscal Deficit?, Blejer and Cheasty, IMF, 1993, page 86-88]. This refers to the deficit or surplus which would prevail if the economy were at a ?normal? level. [?A Review of the Fiscal Impulse Measure,? Heller, Haas, and Mansur, IMF Occasional Paper, May 1986, page 36] Percent of potential GDP
-6.120 -1.419 -2.323 -3.416 -4.032 -4.712 -5.094 -4.227 -3.879 -3.785 -4.496 -4.047 -4.945 -4.190 -3.258 -2.770 -1.948 -0.829 0.089 1.399 2.076 1.007 -1.365 -2.437 -2.196 -1.680 -1.400 -1.442 -3.431 -5.065 -5.325 -4.235 -3.643 -4.283 -3.094 2008
111 USA GGND United States General government net debt General government net debt refers to gross debt of the general government minus its financial assets in the form of debt instruments. Examples of financial assets in the form of debt instruments are government?s investment in other entities? debt securities (such as bills and bonds), loans extended by government, and other accounts receivable. National currency Billions 846.073 793.743 959.238 1,164.161 1,344.174 1,571.476 1,818.030 2,033.791 2,263.203 2,440.713 2,657.590 2,952.686 3,340.377 3,683.300 3,871.624 4,011.501 4,090.337 4,094.999 3,985.187 3,792.826 3,558.575 3,597.101 3,992.264 4,545.673 5,027.113 5,394.818 5,604.198 5,959.452 6,918.721 8,304.161 9,828.979 11,085.281 12,204.016 13,437.485 14,786.275 2008
111 USA GGND_NGDP United States General government net debt General government net debt refers to gross debt of the general government minus its financial assets in the form of debt instruments. Examples of financial assets in the form of debt instruments are government?s investment in other entities? debt securities (such as bills and bonds), loans extended by government, and other accounts receivable. Percent of GDP
30.346 25.385 29.486 32.936 34.195 37.261 40.763 42.940 44.373 44.521 45.816 49.276 52.668 55.244 54.644 54.103 52.183 49.146 45.320 40.550 35.759 34.970 37.513 40.797 42.359 42.686 41.826 42.333 47.909 58.209 66.845 72.326 76.235 80.323 84.884 2008
111 USA GGD United States General government gross debt General government gross debt refers to recognized financial liabilities of the general government that are serviced through interest and/or principal payments. Examples are debt securities issued (such as bills and bonds), loans obtained, and other accounts payable. Guaranteed debt is excluded from government gross debt until called. National currency Billions 1,215.453 1,289.146 1,499.195 1,735.684 1,995.907 2,345.851 2,634.308 2,879.884 3,152.663 3,403.890 3,699.596 4,090.803 4,479.711 4,821.752 5,064.602 5,265.420 5,502.642 5,641.066 5,669.558 5,681.878 5,446.898 5,621.804 6,057.268 6,709.654 7,267.044 7,764.238 8,161.633 8,709.934 10,165.820 12,093.099 13,765.351 14,970.672 16,151.850 17,451.719 18,855.150 2008
111 USA GGD_NGDP United States General government gross debt General government gross debt refers to recognized financial liabilities of the general government that are serviced through interest and/or principal payments. Examples are debt securities issued (such as bills and bonds), loans obtained, and other accounts payable. Guaranteed debt is excluded from government gross debt until called. Percent of GDP
43.594 41.228 46.084 49.106 50.774 55.622 59.065 60.804 61.812 62.091 63.780 68.270 70.632 72.319 71.482 71.014 70.200 67.701 64.475 60.746 54.735 54.654 56.917 60.219 61.234 61.434 60.913 61.871 70.393 84.767 93.615 97.676 100.895 104.318 108.243 2008
111 USA BCA United States Current account balance Current account is all transactions other than those in financial and capital items. The major classifications are goods and services, income and current transfers. The focus of the BOP is on transactions (between an economy and the rest of the world) in goods, services, and income. U.S. dollars Billions 2.317 5.029 -5.531 -38.684 -94.318 -118.131 -147.176 -160.661 -121.159 -99.485 -78.965 2.895 -50.079 -84.816 -121.612 -113.571 -124.773 -140.396 -213.532 -299.819 -417.429 -398.272 -459.147 -521.532 -631.134 -748.685 -803.546 -726.572 -706.068 -369.787 -324.700 -393.598 -457.685 -454.401 -475.216 2008
111 USA BCA_NGDPD United States Current account balance Current account is all transactions other than those in financial and capital items. The major classifications are goods and services, income and current transfers. The focus of the BOP is on transactions (between an economy and the rest of the world) in goods, services, and income. Percent of GDP
0.083 0.161 -0.170 -1.094 -2.399 -2.801 -3.300 -3.392 -2.375 -1.815 -1.361 0.048 -0.790 -1.272 -1.716 -1.532 -1.592 -1.685 -2.428 -3.205 -4.195 -3.872 -4.314 -4.681 -5.318 -5.924 -5.997 -5.161 -4.889 -2.592 -2.208 -2.568 -2.859 -2.716 -2.728 2008

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